辽宁省农业界限温度时空变化特征及其对农业生态环境的影响

摘要：【目的】探討气候变化背景下辽宁省农业界限温度变化对全省农业生产的影响，为农业生产合理规划布局及充分利用农业生态资源进而提高农作物产量提供科学依据。【方法】基于当前全球普遍升温的气候变化，利用1960～2014年辽宁省22个气象站点的逐日气温资料，在Matlab和ArcGIS等技术支持下，分析辽宁省农业界限温度初日、终日、持续天数和积温的时空变化特征、农业界限温度的时空变化特征及其对农业生产的影响。【结果】辽宁省10 ℃农业界限温度初日气候倾向率为-0.445 d/10年，终日气候倾向率为1.757 d/10年，持续天数气候倾向率为2.202 d/10年，积温气候倾向率为53.73 ℃·d/10年；1960～2014年辽宁省农业界限温度初日提前、终日延后、持续天数增加、积温增加，变化幅度与纬度和地理位置密切相关。从空间变化来看，农业界限温度初日由西南向东北推迟、终日由东北向西南延后、积温由西南向东北递减。【结论】未来辽宁省种植趋势应以辽西山地丘陵区为核心，向中部平原区和辽东低山丘陵区扩展；在农业生产过程中应合理使用化肥、农药，从而推动农业生态环境的可持续发展。

关键词： 农业界限温度；积温；时空变化；农业生态环境；辽宁省

中图分类号： S162 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-1191（2018）06-1147-09

Abstract：【Objective】This paper discussed the influence of agricultural critical temperature variation on agricultural production in the whole Liaoning Province under climate change background， which provided scientific basis for rational planning of agricultural production layout and full utilization of agricultural ecological resources to improve crop yield.【Method】Based on the current climate change featuring global warming， daily temperature data of 22 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1960 to 2014 were used. Supported by Matlab and ArcGIS technologies，the analysis was carried by focusing on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of agricultural boundary temperature in Liaoning province， which covered beginning day， ending day， average duration days and accumulated temperature， as well as its influence on agricultural production. 【Result】In terms of 10 ℃ agricultural critical temperature in Liaoning，The climatic tendency rate of beginning day was -0.445 d/10 years， and the climate tendency rate of ending day was 1.757 d/10 years， and the climate tendency rate of average duration days was 2.202 d/10 years， and the temperature tendency rate of the accumulate temperature was 53.73 ℃·d/10 years. The beginning day of agriculture critical temperatures shifted earlier while the ending day postponed， the duration days became longer and accumulate temperature gradually increased from 1960 to 2014 in Liaoning Province， the variation range was closely related to latitude and geographical location. As for the spatial changes， the beginning day of agricultural boundary temperature was postponed from southwest to northeast， and the en-ding day was postponed from northeast to southwest， accumulate temperature was descended from southwest to northeast. 【Conclusion】In the future， the planting trend in Liaoning Province should be based on the mountainous hilly region of western Liaoning， and it should be extended to the central plain areas and the lowland and hilly areas of eastern Liaoning. In the agricultural production process， chemical fertilizers and pesticides should be reasonably used to promote the sustainable development of the agricultural ecological environment.